A shake-up among miners and feasting whales provide the backdrop for serious volatility in Bitcoin continuing.
Bitcoin (BTC) is circling $35,000 at the start of the week after a fresh dip panics weak hands and fuels a whale feast — what’s next? After hitting $30,000 in a “capitulation bottom” event, a rebound to $42,000 had many thinking the worst was over for Bitcoin. The weekend proved them wrong.
From weak hands to strong
Throughout the May sell-off, one process has reappeared over and over — new coins flowing to old hands.
In other words, those coins that moved at higher prices near to the $64,500 all-time highs have moved again at much lower prices. Their destination, via exchanges or otherwise, seems to have been large-volume investors (whales) or wallets with little history of selling.
The phenomenon has been seen before during previous price dips, but the scale of the transfer this time has grabbed analysts’ attention.
1-year record fear
With that said, it will come as no surprise that overall market sentiment in crypto — judged by factors tha cover all participants — is extremely cautious.
On Monday, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is measuring just 10/100, its lowest in over a year and even lower than during the $30,000 test.
Fear & Greed, a crypto-based analog of the same indicator used for the wider economy, uses a basket of factors to determine overall market sentiment at a certain time.
A record monthly “gyration” for Bitcoin
At the time of writing, BTC/USD is hovering at around $36,600 — 1.5% up versus Sunday but 20% lower than the same time a week ago.
Traders’ patience is being tested. The initial $30,000 episode resulted in a rebound to $42,000, the site of February’s all-time high, but this failed to hold for long.
Instead, Bitcoin dipped back into the $30,000 corridor after mainstream media panic over comments from China over mining and crypto-based commerce. These levels have endured as mainstream consumers are fed with more and more alleged risk factors.
Stock-to-flow stays intact
Few long-term indicators provide such a calming view of Bitcoin like stock-to-flow.
Throughout the volatility this month, and indeed throughout all periods of volatile price action, stock-to-flow has remained the go-to resource for those seeking proof that it is all “business as usual” for Bitcoin.
As its creator, PlanB, underlined in recent days, this time is no different. Even its correction of more than 50% versus all-time highs did not make Bitcoin violate stock-to-flow’s predictions.
“Actual bitcoin price is at the lower bound of S2F model. Am I worried? No,” he summarized on Sunday alongside data from the model. PlanB explained that in essence, BTC/USD has room to range approximately 50% around the all-time high in either direction and still conform to expectations.
“It is not OK if we stay at $32K for multiple months, but I expect BTC price to bounce back next days/weeks,” he added.
This Daily Dose was brought to you by Cointelegraph.